Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.073791 2.179339 2.292167 2.422647 2.570562 2.734517 2.932154
2025-08-17 1.961138 2.093264 2.239645 2.416025 2.625949 2.872222 3.190284
2025-08-24 1.886692 2.034626 2.202510 2.410680 2.667368 2.981859 3.411499
2025-08-31 1.831252 1.990100 2.173682 2.406448 2.701733 3.076854 3.615288
2025-09-07 1.800649 1.970433 2.169927 2.428153 2.764733 3.207890 3.877465
2025-09-14 1.734288 1.903589 2.103976 2.365774 2.711269 3.173867 3.890503
2025-09-21 1.703391 1.877426 2.085487 2.360825 2.730567 3.237678 4.052780
2025-09-28 1.663978 1.838732 2.048969 2.329464 2.710370 3.241096 4.115673
2025-10-05 1.664198 1.848048 2.071906 2.375325 2.796545 3.402379 4.454078
2025-10-12 1.673689 1.868416 2.108616 2.439877 2.911267 3.614700 4.916283
2025-10-19 1.654242 1.851272 2.095805 2.435839 2.925560 3.669883 5.093769
2025-10-26 1.639676 1.839528 2.089097 2.439062 2.949349 3.739974 5.307921
2025-11-02 1.600242 1.795952 2.040575 2.384038 2.885781 3.665457 5.220408
2025-11-09 1.581741 1.778477 2.025521 2.374591 2.889364 3.701354 5.368592
2025-11-16 1.565244 1.762934 2.012239 2.366590 2.893802 3.737345 5.519382
2025-11-23 1.550448 1.749041 2.000483 2.359854 2.899029 3.773551 5.673456
2025-11-30 1.546638 1.748945 2.006642 2.378087 2.942640 3.878169 6.005351
2025-12-07 1.512321 1.708548 1.957916 2.316174 2.857944 3.748198 5.736116
2025-12-14 1.500457 1.697111 1.947754 2.309322 2.859552 3.773253 5.860278
2025-12-21 1.479585 1.673553 1.920790 2.277485 2.820385 3.722160 5.783166
2025-12-28 1.487620 1.687667 1.944581 2.319207 2.898913 3.889264 6.300310
2026-01-04 1.501972 1.710123 1.979913 2.378522 3.008289 4.123997 7.089507
2026-01-11 1.492550 1.700928 1.971635 2.372928 3.010305 4.150261 7.254332